Practical Bayesian modelling

With Tom Gillam (Cantab Capital Partners)

Practical Bayesian modelling: Populism, polls, and petitions.

In the days after the referendum concerning the departure of the UK from the EU last year, a petition gathering over 3 million signatures clamoured for a second referendum. This coincided with surveys suggesting significant voter regret. An analysis with a Bayesian hierarchical model is presented, which considers whether indeed the former provides any evidence for or against the latter. The US Presidential election presents another interesting case – we investigate whether the claims of hacking of electronic voting platforms were indeed greatly exaggerated.

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